Related Questions on Metaculus

Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?

The current bird flu outbreak has spilled over into a variety of mammalian species. In October 2022, an H5N1 infection at a Spanish mink farm appears to have spread from mink to mink, one of the first instances of mammal to mammal transmission. The animals were culled.

This raised concerns of a repeat incident, with mink farms appearing as possible sites where mink-to-mink transmission could lead to evolution of a bird flu strain capable of efficient human-to-human transmission. Currently, human infections are highly fatal but occur only sporadically, primarily among poultry farmworkers in close contact with infected birds.

Will a bird flu outbreak among minks on an additional mink farm result in the minks being culled before 2024?

Based on 87 predictions by 21 forecasters